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Information about your device and internet connection, including your IP address, Browsing and search activity while using Verizon Media websites and apps. I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. dave wasserman twitter: trump twitter: nate silver: 2 results. To enable Verizon Media and our partners to process your personal data select 'I agree', or select 'Manage settings' for more information and to manage your choices. One measure of how absentee ballots became partisan over time in Georgia: the partisanship of absentee ballot requests by date . McMullen/LDS: ID/UT 3 Dec, 4 tweets, 2 min read Bookmark . Wild, if dems beat the spread then they would have *really* did a fraud, the number of 0s in my tweet was made up as well, to be fair, they think kennedy stole that one too, © 2020 Copyright All Right Post-election there was this talk that Trump only really gained with Hispanics in S. FL and S. TX. Nate Cohn is a domestic correspondent for The Upshot at The New York Times. As far as I know, Texas checked just about every box of the GOP voting rules wish list. Immigration wasn't even mentioned in the first debate, and the exit poll didn't bother to ask about it, either, Imagine all that would have been missed if we told the story of Trump's gains among white working class voters in '16 as a bunch of localized tales about some union in Youngstown or some Catholic diocese in Scranton or guns in Wisconsin, or whatever, Something happened with the Latino vote just about everywhere in the country, and I don't feel entirely satisfied with by the explanations to this point, in part because so many want to tackle the problem by slicing and dicing the group, In this case, I think a lot was obscured by the erroneous--and clearly erroneous on election night (see Osceola)--assumption that Trump's gains among Latino voters were localized and confined to groups that were deemed unrepresentative of Latinos more generally, But more often than not, I think you tend to lose information by allowing 'x group isn't a monolith'--however true--to obscure what voters within the major demographic groups share in common, It is important to be cognizant of intra-group fissures, and make sure to raise them when they matter. Puerto Rican communities saw the largest GOP swing, Orange County, FL - a major bedrock for Democrats in the state at this point - largely maintained the same margin in 2020 and 2016. See tweets, replies, photos and videos from @Nate_Cohn Twitter profile. However, precinct-level swings show white suburbs moving further left while Trump improved his loss margins in the Puerto Rican community, ⁩ really think SCOTUS was going to invalidate the whole thing? He'll exceed it soon. Support our … Cohn was raised in Auburn, Washington and graduated from Auburn High School in 2007. You can change your choices at any time by visiting Your Privacy Controls. I cover elections, polling, and demographics. but again, i'm just saying that i didn't look at this tweet storm and think 'd/r come together to do progressive reforms.' But take the national polls in ’16. It saw a massive swing in the 2020 election, going from Clinton+25 to Biden+14. Biden still on track in PA; GA tallies were in line with our expectations and Biden may still have the tiny edge in GA--though there are a few too many conflicting reports this AM for me be certain about what's out One of the strangest parts about the Texas suit is that it originates in Texas. And that's it. Trending. Either way, polling gurus Nate Silver of Five­ThirtyEight and Nate Cohn of the New York Times keep producing data sets that lead to the same outcome: heartburn. His reporting focuses on elections, public opinion, and demographics in the United States. Anyway this was a stable election, outside of Latino areas and traditionally GOP well-educated suburbs, so a lot of the differences here are small. Stay tuned. reserved. The important takeaway from all of this, of course, is that the US of Canada v. Jesusland map is probably in need of an update of some kind. It happened pretty much *everywhere*. Early life and education. Nate Cohn (born August 16, 1988) is an American journalist who works as a domestic correspondent for The Upshot at The New York Times. My Authors. Personal Life. ), Not like it will convince anyone, but Biden had a 78-21 lead in the Pennsylvania mail ballots counted on Election Night and only 76-23 in the final mail ballot count (so presumably something like 74-25 in the post-election count), Biden generally did better in the mail ballots on Election Night than those counted after Election Night, including in Pennsylvania. They won by similar amounts in very different ways. Top Searches Holiday Gifts. Above avg Black population: NC/AL/MS/AR/LA We will continue to update information on Nate Cohn’s parents. 7 Dec, 6 tweets, 2 min read Bookmark . in context of a split gop, i think they would clearly hurt progressives, all i'm saying that i don't think these reforms advance progressive interests once we stipulate that the GOP has split, and while the fantasy has a million problems i think the reforms represent an earnest, if undoubtedly insufficient, effort to make it viable, and stipulating a split GOP lol, certainly we can agree that RCV and multi-member would probably lead to more conservative seats than first past the post, i'm just saying that i interpreted the reforms as intended to create a viable multi-party system with two conservative parties, with a 'normal' conservative party deciding coalition gvt, rather than an attempt to crush both parties, regardless of the merits of the fantasy, fwiw i think the addition of ranked choice does the opposite in the context of a split GOP, as dems would still have to face a consolidated conservative vote post-rank choice and couldn't just clean up against a split GOP, Osceola County, just south of Orlando, is nearly 50% Hispanic in registration. There were a lot of surprises in 2020, but I'd put the vastly reduced salience of immigration in this election v. '18 and '20 on the list. But it is not at all obvious that Trump should have done as well as he did in the key battlegrounds, given what happened elsewhere. He was then called in by The New Republic. He did so despite suffering big losses among the state's Latino voters--a group that represents a sliver of the vote in PA/MI/WI, The state of Texas has strict voter ID laws and didn't expand absentee voting. Key northern battleground states: WI/IA/OH/PA Twitter: Nate Cohn: Nate is mainly focused on reporting on elections, demographic and public opinions. @Nate_Cohn 28 Oct Let me pose a question: if we stipulate for a second that Trump's trailing in Arizona now, what exactly is the story for how and why he mounts a comeback? Nate Cohn’s mother’s name is unknown at this time and his father’s name is under review. Photograph by Mel Musto / … Many frequently analyzed demographic groups, like women or young voters include people of every educational, racial or regional strata, Indeed, and so it's worth circling back on an element of the post-election discussion about Latino voters: the refrain that it's a heterogeneous group (which is undoubtedly true). Biden gained less in PA/MI/WI than elsewhere in the nation, causing Trump's E.C. If there's any state GOP that ought to intuit that the election result is entirely sound, it's probably the Texas GOP The state of Texas has strict voter ID laws and didn't expand absentee voting. And yet Trump only won Texas by 5.3 points--a result that's pretty facially consistent with GOP defeat, One of the strangest parts about the Texas suit is that it originates in Texas. Nate Cohn, who oversaw the New York Times’ polling this cycle, offers theories for why the results, in spite of changes made after 2016, contained so many surprises. 11 Dec, 5 tweets, 1 min read Bookmark . Top Searches Holiday Gifts. Once more details are available on who he is dating, we will update this section. If one assumes 1 in quadrillion did not occur, question becomes: what can explain why mail-in ballots that appeared in key swing states after 3 AM were from a different underlying population than those before 3 AM? Nate joined The New York Times in the year 2013. Trending. 1 Caitlyn Kaufman; 2 Donald Trump; 3 Rudy Giuliani Farts; 4 BYU Footbal; 5 Morgan & Morgan; 6 Michael Douglas; 7 Aarp Car Insurance; 8 Aetna Medicare Plans; 9 The Mandalorian; 10 Marijuana; Top Searches Holiday Gifts. edge to expand to nearly 4 points, Anyway, it's hard to imagine being a Texas Republican--and seeing the way your state has swung left under tough voting rules--and being aghast that Biden managed to squeak out wins in traditionally bluer states, Biden improved by 3.4 points over Clinton's performance in the state--a larger improvement than his gains in any of PA/MI/WI. I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. Like many famous people and celebrities, Nate Cohn keeps his personal life private. Biden now leads by 3.86 points nationwide, per @Redistrict popular vote tracker, matching Obama's 3.86 pt win in 2012. We and our partners will store and/or access information on your device through the use of cookies and similar technologies, to display personalised ads and content, for ad and content measurement, audience insights and product development. dave wasserman twitter: trump twitter: nate silver: 1 result. Trending. 1 Bay Area News; 2 Miley Cyrus; 3 Rudy Giuliani Fart; 4 Emmanuel Duron; 5 TD Ameritrade; 6 The Mandalorian; 7 Canvas Photos; 8 Ram ProMaster; 9 Mank Movie; 10 Grey's Anatomy; Top Searches Holiday Gifts. My Authors. Now, we know he made double digit gains in supermajority Hispanic areas in LA, Chicago, New York and even New England. dave wasserman twitter: trump twitter: nate silver: 1 result. Save as PDF . If there's any irregularity, maybe that's it? is it just a duck egg or is it duck sausage, or both, quite possibly! He covers elections, polling and demographics. See full results and maps from the Georgia election. BREAKING: The Supreme Court has denied Texas' last-ditch effort to overturn the election results in four battleground states that voted for Joe Biden. Yahoo is part of Verizon Media. The big picture: no change in where we stand since last night. A telling historical footnote will be that they were joined by two non-existent states in their effort to overturn the results of four actual states, which is very much in line with the quality of the allegations that have been raised over the last month, So a majority of House Republicans and AGs asked the Supreme Court to nullify the result of the presidential election--and bring about a constitutional crisis with untold risks to the country--in a case that the Court dismissed in a couple of paragraphs. He first started his career in journalism from The Stimson Center after his graduation. Here's the shift in presidential results between 2012 and 2020 1 Laptop deals; 2 Faux wood blinds; 3 Elliptical exercise machine; 4 Meal delivery … One answer is election fraud. and you can add that to a very long list of issues with the fantasy. My Authors. The “other” Nate, Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn; 319,200 followers), is a domestic correspondent for The Upshot, an analytical team at The New York Times, where he … Follow @Nate_Cohn. Diverse, urban: CA/NV/FL/NY/NJ/IL/HI 1 Rudy Covid; 2 Detroit Lions; 3 Giuliani Fart; 4 Cleveland Browns; 5 Asian Singles; 6 Squiggy; 7 SkinnyFit; 8 Tax Relief Programs; 9 Black Lives Matter; 10 Manchester United; Top Searches Holiday Gifts. @Nate_Cohn 7 Nov There was a point on Tuesday night--not sure the time, you can probably find the tweet--when the eastern Ohio counties came in and I think I would have thought very hard about calling Trump the favorite Find out more about how we use your information in our Privacy Policy and Cookie Policy. Follow @Nate_Cohn. The NYT’s Nate Cohn accuses RealClearPolitics of skewing its final poll averages in favor of Trump Posted at 8:01 am on November 3, 2020 by Greg P. Share on Facebook Share on Twitter 472.3K Followers, 1.1K Following. Save as PDF . In April, the early absentee ballot requests were overwhelmingly GOP after the primary was delayed and the SOS mailed out absentee requests. If there's any state GOP that ought to intuit that the election result is entirely sound, it's probably the Texas GOP, Anyway, it's part of the reason why our election night estimate was a little bit high on Biden's final margin of victory in Pennsylvania (overcoming the 1:10000000000 odds against us!! Report coming soon. It is a little hard to explain why Biden did quite so poorly in the Midwestern battleground states, More generally, one of the incredible things about the election is that Biden generally *underperformed* in the decisive battleground states. 2 days ago. Follow @Nate_Cohn. Top Searches Holiday Gifts. They swung fundamentally differently, Nonetheless, these big messy groups--young people, white working class voters, latino voters, and so on--really do have things in common that distinguishes them from the rest of the electorate, making them useful categories for analysis despite all the subtlety they obscure, Even racially/educationally homogenous groups (say, white working class voters) include huge variation: white no college voters in Mississippi and Vermont have... very little in common, Every major demographic group is heterogeneous. In the Obama era, for instance, it was really important to distinguish between white working class voters in the north and south. I cover … Save as PDF . If you go through the states that trended GOP with respect to the country, you can group them into four main groups: Northwest expat. 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